Tankwatch

By , January 17, 2010 10:45 am
The Taylor Tank

The Taylor Tank

So Mr. Majestyk brought up a question in one of the GDT threads asking how other teams have done in the same 15 game period that the Oil have gone 1-13-1 in. I decided to whip up a post figuring out what pace team’s are on, and how many points they are on pace for if they maintain that for the remainder of the season. Now obviously, paces will change, so take this with a grain of salt, but i thought it would be interesting to look at.


In the same 15 game period:

Team Record Win %
EDM Oilers 1-13-1 0.100
CAR Hurricanes 7-7-1 0.500
TOR Maple Leafs 4-9-2 0.333
CBJ Blue Jackets 4-9-2 0.333
TBL Lightning 7-7-1 0.500

Now, obviously the Oilers can’t be expected to maintain such a crappy pace, but out of curiousity, let’s take a look at what these teams are on pace for.


Season totals based on last 15 games pace:

Team Points
EDM Oilers 44
CAR Hurricanes 70
TOR Maple Leafs 63
CBJ Blue Jackets 67
TBL Lightning 76

So the low bar for the Oilers to aim for seems to be the Leafs at 63 pts (again, purely based on current pace, which can easily change).

So in order for the Oilers to finish with 62 points, they need to finish with something like 10-20-5 or 0.357 win%.


Now what if each team maintains their season pace?

Team Points
EDM Oilers 65
CAR Hurricanes 61
TOR Maple Leafs 69
CBJ Blue Jackets 74
TBL Lightning 80

So now the low bar is at 61 points. Which means the Oilers would need to finish 10-22-3 or 0.329 win% (for 60 pts).

Let’s go, keep the winless streak in January alive boys!

15 Responses to “Tankwatch”

  1. NorwegianOiler says:

    Can’t believe your last sentence mate, just can’t. If we end up last, we end up last, but until 82 games have been played, there’s only cheering for victory for me. There are no guarantees in draft picks, high or low, and for any team there should be no incentive to lose, ever. That’s where the fans play a role in this…

    We all talk about winning mentalities and what not, and how that comes to be is a complicated matter. Alas, a losing mentality spreads faster than a winning mentality ;)

  2. NorwegianOiler says:

    (And, just say no to Hall, pick Fowler ;))

    At least that’s who I’d put my money on us picking right now.

  3. Racki says:

    My stance on it is that as long as the games are entertaining, I’m happy. The last couple have been losses but well played games. Wasn’t bothered by the loss at all.

    Draft picks may not be guarantees, but there sure is a hell of a lot better chance of getting a top notch player if we’re picking #1 overall than if we were picking around 15th.

    And I don’t think Hall is going to be the player to bring this team out of the ashes, but we might as well have something to show for it. N.O., the Oilers had a winning attitude 2 of the last 3 seasons (where they decided to push near the end of the season) and how far has it gotten us?

    The team needs a bit of a redo, and I don’t think hitting rock bottom is going to be any worse than lingering around 10th-ish in the conference. That 2nd option just results in our GM keeping the team on life support, as we’ve seen for quite some time now.

    Don’t mistake my happiness with dropping in the standings as not loving this team. We apparently just have a different idea of what is best for this team. I don’t see your view as wrong, just a different idea of what is best for it than me.

    Before this team can truly have a winning culture, some big changes are going to be needed anyways.

    Cheer for the victories all you want, nothing wrong with that. You can cheer along with Steve-O ;) Me, I’m not cheering any particular outcome.. just hoping that the games remain entertaining.

  4. HockeyNoob says:

    It’s funny, I read a post about Putting on the Foil at Oilers Jambalaya awhile back… Smokin’ Ray described people on his site as having the ability to argue without really arguing. I guess it’s a reflection of how civil people are at the Foil which is a good thing.

    I’m pretty much on board with the dive 4 five since the playoffs are out of the picture and the fact that it seems inevitable anyway. :)

    I do see where Norwegian Oiler is coming from though too. It is a concern, but this team’s doing a fine job losing even when they’re trying to win.

    Both Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall seem to be tracking far below a player like John Tavares, so this draft year probably won’t yield the next Crosby, Malkin, or Ovechkin.

    Cam Fowler is a player that I’m starting to pay more attention to. He looked great at the WJC.

  5. Bostonoiler says:

    Just get Hall. Tank for god sakes! Can he alone take this squad out of the basement, NO. However with Eberle and Svensson also being rookies next season and possibly Omark, added to Hemsky, Penner and Gagner its a pretty good start

  6. OilerTyler says:

    Bostonoiler: Just get Hall. Tank for god sakes! Can he alone take this squad out of the basement, NO. However with Eberle and Svensson also being rookies next season and possibly Omark, added to Hemsky, Penner and Gagner its a pretty good start

    I can’t see Omark leaving Russia (And the money he is getting there) to come play here, unless he is playing for one of those teams owned by the Russian mafia that doesn’t pay their players the full amount of the contract.

    Am I the only one here that would pick Cam Fowler with our pick if given the option between him, Hall and Seguin?

    I feel that we have a good core for our forwards. Penner, Gagner, Hemsky, Eberle, Svensson and Brule makes for a good top six going forward if you ask me. We also have Lander, Horcoff (He won’t get traded, we have to deal with that) and Potulny which could be quite the checking line. Its our D that concerns me, we don’t have much going on back there. Visnovsky and Souray are going to have to retire eventually, and we don’t have many (if any) D men in the system that have the potential to be top pairing guys. I would keep Visnovsky so he can mentor our young defenceman, but trade Souray as he is obviously passing his prime and I don’t want to be stuck with his contract. Grebs and Gilbert aren’t good enough defensively, and I think one of them will have to be traded soon anyways because they are too similar of a player (I would keep Gilbert, I think he is a better all around defenceman than Grebeshkov). Smid has been a stud, and could potentially be a top pairing D man somewhere down the line. With Fowler, we could have a defensive core that consists of Gilbert, Smid, Visnovsky and Fowler, not too bad if you ask me.

  7. chucker says:

    Yes!!! We suck the best. Hall will go a long way to getting this organization turned around. I don’t care if we win, I just want Hall. I also am praying for something for all of Souray, Nilsson, Staios, Moreau and Pisani and Horcoff (dream on). Gilbert can hit the road too as far as I’m concerned. The Meszaros for Gilbert rumour is intriguing.

  8. Racki says:

    OilerTyler:
    I can’t see Omark leaving Russia (And the money he is getting there) to come play here, unless he is playing for one of those teams owned by the Russian mafia that doesn’t pay their players the full amount of the contract.Am I the only one here that would pick Cam Fowler with our pick if given the option between him, Hall and Seguin?I feel that we have a good core for our forwards.Penner, Gagner, Hemsky, Eberle, Svensson and Brule makes for a good top six going forward if you ask me.We also have Lander, Horcoff (He won’t get traded, we have to deal with that) and Potulny which could be quite the checking line.Its our D that concerns me, we don’t have much going on back there.Visnovsky and Souray are going to have to retire eventually, and we don’t have many (if any) D men in the system that have the potential to be top pairing guys.I would keep Visnovsky so he can mentor our young defenceman, but trade Souray as he is obviously passing his prime and I don’t want to be stuck with his contract.Grebs and Gilbert aren’t good enough defensively, and I think one of them will have to be traded soon anyways because they are too similar of a player (I would keep Gilbert, I think he is a better all around defenceman than Grebeshkov).Smid has been a stud, and could potentially be a top pairing D man somewhere down the line.With Fowler, we could have a defensive core that consists of Gilbert, Smid, Visnovsky and Fowler, not too bad if you ask me.

    On the note of Fowler, Hall or Seguin, the jury is still definitely out. I’ve seen Hall play (at the WJHC) and I was pretty impressed by his two way play. But I don’t know if I was impressed enough to consider him the #1 undisputed pick. He does have the benefit (currently) of good linemates. Seguin is a different story. He’s basically doing it by himself with Plymouth. As for Fowler, I mistakingly did not pay attention to him during the WJHCs. There definitely is something to be said about acquiring a franchise d-man though. I’ve always felt that you should build your team from the backend up.

    Really, I am not so sure we’d be wrong in picking any one of those three guys. I think a lot of people have a preconceived notion though that the top draft picks are going to be duds, just based specifically on a few in the past 15 years or so that have been busts. Are they guaranteed elite? No, but I’m not writing them off before seeing them in the NHL either. They have the potential to be franchise stars though. That all remains to be seen though, and if we did pick up one of those players, I’m also not going to instantly set unrealstic expectations on these guys.

    As for trading Souray, I’ve warmed up to it a bit. His skillset would need to be replaced though in some way. They already need at least one banging defenseman. The leadership would be missed as well, but that can be acquired.

    Anyways, just my thoughts on the subject.

  9. Racki says:

    HockeyNoob: It’s funny, I read a post about Putting on the Foil at Oilers Jambalaya awhile back…Smokin’ Ray described people on his site as having the ability to argue without really arguing. I guess it’s a reflection of how civil people are at the Foil which is a good thing.

    When we first started up here, I invited most of the better posters on the OMB I could think of. Some more good posters I didn’t think of (duh to me) also came by as well too. Anyways, to make a long story short, I haven’t really ever had to lay the smack down here, so to speak, because all you posters keep it civil here. So that is appreciated!

  10. Trogdor says:

    I’d have to side with the idea of picking up Fowler. We do have a lot of up and coming talent up front, but the D isn’t there. Not sure how the draft will play out though. Lottery, plus the possibility we play our way out of the basement means that no future is set in stone.

    If we do get #1/#2 perhaps there is some defensive depth and we can grab someone else after Hall/Seguin. Having a guy like Hall could generate some interest in coming to Edmonton as well for others who may consider us a barren wasteland. Hard to say exactly what to do to bring things around, but I’m going to hope that those who are getting paid to turn things around will make the right decisions. Most recently though they have given me a crisis of faith…

  11. Racki says:

    Thats a very good point about our prospects. Would be nice to have someone who completely owns the back end (besides that guy we work with who talks about it all the time). But on the flip side, we’ve drafted by need before, and it bit us in the ass. As they say, draft the best player available in round 1 (unless the players are fairly even, which may be the case).

    I wonder if it’s possible to claim another draft pick in the 1st round this year. I’d love to come out of the draft with Fowler, and Niederreiter and then maybe sneak Campbell out with our first pick of round 2. Unlikely, but a guy can dream. That would help solidify the future.

    Btw, on that note… Hockey’s Future has their rankings up now, as of Jan 16th.

    Niederreiter climbed from 21 to 16, courtesy of an awesome WJHC. Campbell isn’t listed in their round 1 rankings, so hey.. maybe he could be had early in round 2.

  12. Mr.Majestyk says:

    A thread inspired by one of my comments? Nice!

    I’d prefer that we take the consensus number 1 pick if we end up in last place. So, If central scouting and pretty much every scout out there says that Hall is the best, I’m not going to argue with them based on the limited amount I’ve seen Fowler and I haven’t seen Seguin at all. With that being said, I wouldn’t mind dropping down a spot and giving up Hall say to the Bruins for the 3rd pick overall and taking Fowler but also getting the Bruins first round pick.

  13. Racki says:

    Yah I’m with you there.. draft the best guy available. If it’s Fowler, so be it. But a franchise d-man definitely would be nice, so it’s hard to argue that side of it. If these guys are pretty equal across the board, maybe we draft Fowler if we get #1 pick overall. But if Hall is a big step ahead, then that’s who they should be picking.

  14. Trogdor says:

    So far Toronto is doing their job, but the Canes are down 2-1.

  15. neufab says:

    Clearly this year is a write-off, but I want to see these guys play well. I think that the team needs fan support more when they are struggling than when all is peachy. As for taking the best player, not if he’s another 5’11” – 180 lb. center. This team needs to draft the best big physical player. As for Taylor Hall, is he more than a Brule or a Gagner or a Hemsky? From what I’ve heard (not seen) he gets knocked off of the puck somewhat.

    I was one who defended this teams lack of “size” and physicality, but it has become an obvious problem. They can’t seem to utilize their “skill” when they get knocked around and off of the puck as often as they do. Nor are they utilizing their speed. On many occasions they look slower than the opposition. Maybe in a failed attempt and settling things down and reading and/or creating a play.

    Even if they finish dead last, I want to see this team start to play for each other as a TEAM!!! I want to see them finish off plays instead of blowing golden opportunities. I want to see hitters hit, scorers score, and passers connect passes. They are too reactionary, and combat the other teams style of play, allowing them to dictate it, rather than making other teams face Oiler hockey.

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